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Morgan Stanley on China-US trade war

According to ZhaoShang Security research, if trade war between China and US were to happen, China’s iron and steel industry, chemical and metal industry and electronic equipment industry will be affected seriously.

Morgan Stanley’s research did three scenario analyses, assuming the average tariff to be 15%, 30% and 45%, to see the effect on Chinese export and economy. Under the tariff of 15%, 30%, and 45%, Chinese exports to the US will decrease by 20.7%, 46.2% and 71.7% respectively, resulting in a total decrease of China export of3.7%, 8.2% and 12.8%.

China International Capital Corporation claimed that it is relatively impossible for Trump to set 45% as average tariff. The research then predicted what China economy will be like if 30% was the average tariff rate. Under this condition, export quantity will decrease by 8.2%, GDP will decrease by 0.64%, and employment will decrease by 0.55%.

 

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