Prof Bagnai makes some important points in his article written for IlSole24Ore. The one that I find most interesting is that many economists and politicians, today, when discussing about the future of the Euro, hold the view that There Is No Alternative and that history is linear and we can only go forward. Those who maintain this view are probably not well informed or, worse, say so to hide what they really think. I would just add that Dornbursch, my economic Professor at MIT, used to tell me that disaster takes longer to materialize than we expect, but then it happens suddenly.
China’s economy is likely to grow by 6.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2017, driven by increasing production activities and investments, according to a report by National Academy of Economic Strategy (NAES). The positive trend seen in 4Q 2016 has continued into the first quarter of 2017. Industrial production, fixed assets investment, real estate and infrastructure development have all gone up. It will be very unusual for China to beat its own 6.5% as estimate. However, if the first quarter of the 2017 really were to post 6.5% GDP growth, that would be a very good result for the economy. And, more importantly, for the confidence that world economy may have on futures perspectives of China.
Chinese industrial companies are experiencing robust profit growth in the first two months of 2017. In January and February, industrial enterprises reported a 31.5% increase in profit from the same period last year, reaching a total value of 1.02 trillion Yuan ($148.5 billion). I strongly believe that, this time, China is serious about it. China Manufacturing 2025 is a real thing and not the usual initiative aimed at pleasing the desire to enhance soft power and find objective to dissuade attention.
Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Miao Wei, during the National People Congress said that China welcomes foreign companies to compete openly with domestic companies within the framework of CM2025. He said the market is going to play a significant role in company selection and resources allocation. All companies will be treated equally. “Adhere to the government-led, market oriented” is the principle of CM 2025 initiative. Foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry has peaked in 2011 at 50%, and since then declined to reach 43% in 2015. Worth noticing is how the proportion of foreign direct investment in the service industry has grown substantially over the last five years.
According to the annual budget report of the Finance Department of the central province of Hunan, the central government has estimated that national fiscal revenue will increase 5% this year and local government fiscal revenue will increase 6%. Looking at the fiscal budget and in particularly the forecasted increase in revenues, could offer an indication of the government expectation of future nominal GDP growth rate. So from this figures, 6 % of expected fiscal revenue growth, one could try to get an estimate for next year fiscal GDP growth.