Prof Bagnai makes some important points in his article written for IlSole24Ore. The one that I find most interesting is that many economists and politicians, today, when discussing about the future of the Euro, hold the view that There Is No Alternative and that history is linear and we can only go forward. Those who maintain this view are probably not well informed or, worse, say so to hide what they really think. I would just add that Dornbursch, my economic Professor at MIT, used to tell me that disaster takes longer to materialize than we expect, but then it happens suddenly.
China’s economy is likely to grow by 6.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2017, driven by increasing production activities and investments, according to a report by National Academy of Economic Strategy (NAES). The positive trend seen in 4Q 2016 has continued into the first quarter of 2017. Industrial production, fixed assets investment, real estate and infrastructure development have all gone up. It will be very unusual for China to beat its own 6.5% as estimate. However, if the first quarter of the 2017 really were to post 6.5% GDP growth, that would be a very good result for the economy. And, more importantly, for the confidence that world economy may have on futures perspectives of China.
Chinese industrial companies are experiencing robust profit growth in the first two months of 2017. In January and February, industrial enterprises reported a 31.5% increase in profit from the same period last year, reaching a total value of 1.02 trillion Yuan ($148.5 billion). I strongly believe that, this time, China is serious about it. China Manufacturing 2025 is a real thing and not the usual initiative aimed at pleasing the desire to enhance soft power and find objective to dissuade attention.