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China-US: Currency peace

A Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Feb 14th that China hopes that “relevant sides” will look on the RMB rate issue “in a right manner”. Devaluation RMB to boost exports has mostly been a thing of the past, during the early days of WTO membership. In general China’s exports have shown little elasticity to price. I also believe that RMB exchange rate should continue to be managed by the Central Bank and Trump is probably beginning to take a more real politik with China: the less is said, the better.

Chinese exporters have suffered a total of 20 trade remedy probes initiated by the United States in 2016

Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Chinese exporters have suffered a total of 20 trade remedy probes initiated by the United States in 2016, which was an 81.1% increase year on year. 3.7 billion USD was involved in the 11 anti-dumping and nine anti-subsidy investigations, an increase of 131% from 2015. China suffered 140 trade remedy measures from the United States as of the end of 2016, including 102 anti-dumping and 38 anti-subsidy measures.

Don’t just look at current account but the sum of current and capital account

In Jan, the figure of China’s import and export is far beyond expection. Export increase by 7.9% increase YoY calculated by USD, and 15.2% increase if calculated by RMB. Import also increased dramatically, with 16.7% by USD and 25.2% by RMB. My advice is from now on to look at the combined values of both current account and capital accounts, roughly speaking trade and capital investment balances.

EU overestimates its negotiating power vis a vis China

“I welcomed President Xi Jinping’s commitment in fighting against protectionism,” EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said at a seminar on China’s reform agenda, organized by Business Europe in Brussels. I think the EU representatives don’t seem to fully understand that China does not intend to deal with Europe as a block, rather it prefers to do bilateral deals with individual countries, of course within the limits of what EU regulation allows since trade policy lives in Brussels and not in the European individual countries.

Morgan Stanley on China-US trade war

Morgan Stanley’s research did three scenario analyses, assuming the average tariff to be 15%, 30% and 45%, to see the effect on Chinese export and economy. Under the tariff of 15%, 30%, and 45%, Chinese exports to the US will decrease by 20.7%, 46.2% and 71.7% respectively, resulting in a total decrease of China export of3.7%, 8.2% and 12.8%. China International Capital Corporation claimed that it is relatively impossible for Trump to set 45% as average tariff. The research then predicted what China economy will be like if 30% was the average tariff rate.

The US-China Trade Relationship

Sino-U.S. trade volume grew from 2.5 billion U.S. dollars in 1979 to about 519.6 billion dollars in 2016, surging by 211 times within 38 years, according to MOC statistics. A report from the U.S.-China Business Council (USCBC) showed that bilateral trade and investment in 2015 created about 2.6 million jobs for Americans and contributed to about 1.2 percent of U.S. GDP that year.

US-China trade: The forgotten shall be forgotten no more

Wilbur Ross, American Commerce Secretary on Wednesday stated that China is the most serious trade protectionist country. China is doing well in talking about free trade than actually doing it. When dealing with trade and protectionism issues, a country is always trying to find a balance between protecting the interest of producers’ vs protecting the interest of consumers’. But things get more complicated when policy makers need to find a compromise between making a country better off on average vs making everyone better off.

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