Today, in a short commentary written for Radiocor/IlSole24Ore, I discuss the issue of migrant flow into Europ and its impact on the economy of the host country. Everyone asks the question “Do migrants bring positive or negative benefits to the receiving country?”. The short answer is it depends on a number of variables and generalisation across the globe would be mis-leading. However, narrowing the focus on the Mediterrenan migrant flow into Italy, one can almost certainly affirm that in the short term, the impact is negative and that in the long term it is, at best unclear. The impact may potentially be positive only under a strict set of assumptions, that need to be carefully analysied before making irreversible decisions.
Alberto Bagnai said that there should be a controlled end to the euro. He is a professor at Pescara University who is one of the leading Italian advocates of leaving the euro. My main comment is that if Italy remains in the Eurozone, it will be very difficult, almost impossible, for Italy to escape the current economic crisis. Indeed, things may get worse over time. If however, Italy decides to exit the Eurozone, there is a chance. It does not mean that Italexit will bring prosperity, but it will give Italians a chance.
Michele Geraci talked about global challenges and opportunities under Trump’s era at the opening ceremony of the 2017 CRRC Advanced International Talent Development Programme, at the University of Nottingham, China. Geraci also discussed Trieste port as an example of terminal for the Maritime Silk Road. Trieste port, located at Italy, is a key location for the 21st Maritime Silk Road. It has a big competitive advantage with Central Europe and it has direct links to Germany and, from there, direct links to Scandinavia.
The president of Italy is currently in china for an official state visit. This state visit comes at an interesting time for both China and Italy: the two countries are engaging more than before into a commercial dialogue of mutual respect and common interests, trade between the two counties shows good sign of improvement and Italian trade deficit appears to narrow slightly and capital investments made in the past couple of years have all helped improve the image that the Italian Business community has of China.
China’s outbound property investment plunged 84% in January ’17, compared to January ’16, while for the whole of 2016, the non-financial outbound investment surged by 44% to a new record of 170 billion USD. Howerver, SAFE’s director, Mr Pan, claims that China is not taking any measure to restrict capital outflows and that the recent decline is only due to the abnormal increase posted during 2016. I tend to agree with Mr Pan, in that 2016 might have been an abnormal growth year, one cannot entirely dismiss the recent measures taken by the Chinese government that tend to make transfer of capital abroad a little bit less easier than before.
Oggi commento, paragrafo dopo paragrafo, il discorso di Draghi tenuto in Slovenia.Il Predidente della BCE, ammette che, ad oggi, la zona Euro non soddisfa le condizioni per avere una moneta comune. Tuttavia lo potrebbe diventare se 1) nessuno stato commettesse errori di politica economica; 2) se si facessero riforme strutturali; 3) se ci fosse maggior rigore nei deficit e 4) se si arrivasse ad un unione finanziaria. La differenza tra chi sostiene l’Euro e chi no si risolve quindi nella fiducia o meno che tali quattro punti si realizzino in tempi brevi.
Prof Alberto Bagnai, intervistato da TGCom24, ci ricorda che gli stati Europei hanno dimenticato il principio di autodeterminazione, dal momento che le scelte dei paesi sono ormai in mano a Brussels. Il debito pubblico italiano sarebbe convertibile in Lire e, nonostante la cosa non sia semplicissima, il problema diventa tanto più complesso quanto più si posticipa la possibile uscita dell’Italia dall’Euro. Il mio commento è che è ormai giunto il momento di affrontare la questione in modo oggettivo, non legato alle politiche. Suppongo che sia chi sia a favore sia chi sia contro l’uscita dall’Euro abbia a cuore il benessere degli Italiani. Propongo una conferenza dove si discutano questi temi, e che il parlamento e governo italiano, per una volta, dimentichino il proprio partito di appartenenza e si discuta di contenuti ..al più presto.
With the passing of time, as more and more analysts do their analysis based on numbers and not on slogans, the cost for Italy to leave the Eurozone seems to magically get smaller and smaller. Before, pundits were predicting a total collapse of the economic system; later on some economists estimated the actual costs. Last week, even the ECB broke the tabu and estimate in 350bn the cost of italy leaving the Euro. Today, Mediobanca, published a report arguing that if Italy were to leave the Eurozone, it would actually SAVE money, 8bn, not much. But it is now clear that we are getting closer to a more serious debate. I, for my part, have been saying that the Euro would bring disaster to Italy since the late 90s.