In this first Op-Ed for 2017 written for Radiocor, I attemp to compare Italian and Chinese economic pillars and suggest a simple program, in eight points, to revive the Italian Economy. China economy finds its success on an combination of government and private sector activity. Italians economy needs better coordination between those two sectors and citizens too need to play their role. More needs to be done, naturally, and I will in the course of the next few days, develop each of those points in more detail. For now, Happy New Year to All..
Hollande said: “France is open to the world, France belongs to European.” Theresa May called for unity in the country and said that “ambition will unite us.” I think politicians need to pay more attention to citizens views and not just pretend like they have done for decades. The economic situation in Europe and the lack of serious development policies do not fear well for incumbent parties. The EU must undergo a deep reorganization and redefinition of its mission, probably by slowing down integration rather than moving ahead blindly.
The people of Italy have rejected the proposed changes in the Constitution by a large margin. The Prime Mister, Renzi, the main supporter of this reform has been defeated and has resigned. The two alternative parties, the Northern League and the Five Star Movement are now in a much more favorable position to launch a new referendum that would ask Italian people whether they wish to remain in the Eurozone.
Italy will hold a referendum on constitutional reform in December 4th. Although Renzi has carried out a series of reforms since he took office, Italian people are very disappointed with the low economic growth in Italy. As OECD forecasted, Italy’s economy will grow by 0.8% this year, 0.9% and 1% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. “It seems that Italy can’t see any hope in its future. “While interviewed by 21st century business herald, Geraci said, “Currently Italian economy and social conditions are in the doldrums. Lot of young people who cannot find jobs left Italy, which worsen the aging problem for the country.”
Sunday, the people of Italy will cast their vote for the Constitutional referendum. It is not a referendum about staying or leaving the European Union, as some Chinese media have incorrectly reported recently. If Italians vote “Yes”, the constitution will be changed. If the vote “No”, it stays as it is. The actual content of the constitutional reforms is quite complex and involves changing about one third of the articles of the constitution.
Geraci and Prof He Weiwen from Renming University were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 25, November, 2016. They discussed three main topics: Shanghai free trade zone, RMB internationalization and Trump’s impact on china. For Shanghai free trade zone, it is impossible to be successful with no borders control. In terms of RMB internationalization, RMB entering SDR is a recognition that China is moving but it has no practical implication. Trump will increase tariffs, but it’s impact on Chinese exporters may not be as large as originally anticipated.
The election of Trump is a good news for China. In this weekly podcast, Geraci talked about two reasons: Firstly, although Trump said in his speech that he will raise the tariffs, but it is mainly for those companies who outsource to China or other countires. Trump will keep his promises but it will not hurt relationship with China. Secondly, Trump has pledged to build infrustructure that ‘second to none’. To be second to none means to be second to China. China will benefit a lot because China is the only country in the world that can really help the United State to build its infrustructure.
If ‘unity from the bottom’ is not working, Trump should try ‘Unity from the Top’ by trying to involve top members of the Democratic Party in his team. Like in Dante’s Divine Commedy, where the souls of the dead are arranged in concentric circles, according to their degree of beatification, so Trump needs to build his team in a similar fashion.