Geraci and Prof He Weiwen from Renming University were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 25, November, 2016. They discussed three main topics: Shanghai free trade zone, RMB internationalization and Trump’s impact on china. For Shanghai free trade zone, it is impossible to be successful with no borders control. In terms of RMB internationalization, RMB entering SDR is a recognition that China is moving but it has no practical implication. Trump will increase tariffs, but it’s impact on Chinese exporters may not be as large as originally anticipated.
The election of Trump is a good news for China. In this weekly podcast, Geraci talked about two reasons: Firstly, although Trump said in his speech that he will raise the tariffs, but it is mainly for those companies who outsource to China or other countires. Trump will keep his promises but it will not hurt relationship with China. Secondly, Trump has pledged to build infrustructure that ‘second to none’. To be second to none means to be second to China. China will benefit a lot because China is the only country in the world that can really help the United State to build its infrustructure.
If ‘unity from the bottom’ is not working, Trump should try ‘Unity from the Top’ by trying to involve top members of the Democratic Party in his team. Like in Dante’s Divine Commedy, where the souls of the dead are arranged in concentric circles, according to their degree of beatification, so Trump needs to build his team in a similar fashion.
Weapons can kill the hungry, the sick, the ignorants. But cannot kill hunger, sickness and ignorance “Fidel’s speech at U.N. Fidel has been leader Maximo of Cuba since 1959, when he arrived to Cuba with a small boat and few friends to start one of the most spectacular guerrilla revolutions.
Geraci on Al Jazeera said: “Without the US, TPP is dead. Alternative regional trade agreements are also unlikely amongst the remaining countries, because without the US covering their backs and opening its market, no country would have any interest in antagonizing China. While trade is beneficial on average for both countries involved, it is not beneficial for all the citizens. Trump may not be concerned too much about the average wealth or the average U.S. citizens, rather, he would probably be more concerned about the low income of the people who voted for him and supported him, and even if pulling out of TPP is detrimental to the overall US economy, it would be beneficial to the group of voters that support him, hence his anti-TPP stance.”
The Chinese president called on Italy to better dovetail its development strategy with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Xi said, “Italy has been China’s trusted friend and important partner in the EU and the development momentum of China-Italy comprehensive strategic partnership is encouraging.” Geraci thinks Italy should know more about Chinese consumers.
Geraci has been interviewed by Italian RaiNews to discuss the impact of Trump on Chinese economic development. On the margin, he believes Trump’s presidency will be slightly positive for China. On one hand, Trump has made a promise to raise tariffs for imports from China into the U.S. But Geraci points out that one thing is the rhetoric used during the election period and one other thing is what the President will do afterwards. Obviously he needs to take care of the mid-western voters, people who are particularly hit by the economic recession, and he needs to show he is doing something to help them, without affecting the relationship with China too much.
Forecast: “Sanders may be part of Trump’s cabinet, whether in official capacity or not”. From Democrat Sanders’s official website: “To the degree that Mr.Trump is serious about pursuing policies that improve the lives of working families in this country, I and other progressives are prepared to work with him. To the degree that he pursues racist, sexist, xenophobic and anti-environment policies, we will vigorously oppose him.”