When Trump announced that the U.S. infrastructure will be “second to none”, he was almost inviting China to exchange potentially worse trade conditions for better investment opportunity into the U.S. Black Swans are always opportunities if well understood: China needs to quickly move to value added manufacturing (China 2025) and having some trade issues with the U.S can, actually, only help China’s speed up its transition towards innovation.
The rate hike operated by the Fed should not lead to particularly negative consequences for China because China is taking a step back in the reforms of the financial system and closing into itself. As soon as any government makes the choice to open the country’s capital account, there’s little that any central bank can do to defend its currency. China, therefore, does well to re-trench and disconnect from the world of international finance by adopting restrictive measures on the export of capital.
Geraci and Prof He Weiwen from Renming University were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 25, November, 2016. They discussed three main topics: Shanghai free trade zone, RMB internationalization and Trump’s impact on china. For Shanghai free trade zone, it is impossible to be successful with no borders control. In terms of RMB internationalization, RMB entering SDR is a recognition that China is moving but it has no practical implication. Trump will increase tariffs, but it’s impact on Chinese exporters may not be as large as originally anticipated.
Geraci on Al Jazeera said: “Without the US, TPP is dead. Alternative regional trade agreements are also unlikely amongst the remaining countries, because without the US covering their backs and opening its market, no country would have any interest in antagonizing China. While trade is beneficial on average for both countries involved, it is not beneficial for all the citizens. Trump may not be concerned too much about the average wealth or the average U.S. citizens, rather, he would probably be more concerned about the low income of the people who voted for him and supported him, and even if pulling out of TPP is detrimental to the overall US economy, it would be beneficial to the group of voters that support him, hence his anti-TPP stance.”
Geraci has been interviewed by Italian RaiNews to discuss the impact of Trump on Chinese economic development. On the margin, he believes Trump’s presidency will be slightly positive for China. On one hand, Trump has made a promise to raise tariffs for imports from China into the U.S. But Geraci points out that one thing is the rhetoric used during the election period and one other thing is what the President will do afterwards. Obviously he needs to take care of the mid-western voters, people who are particularly hit by the economic recession, and he needs to show he is doing something to help them, without affecting the relationship with China too much.
South Asian nations are more likely to support America as long as it supports peace and free trade.China has announced a 20% increase in import from Asian countries, however, the outcome was not promising. With the transform from manufacturing to consumption country of China, Asian countries are unlikely to sell their raw materials easily like before. Additionally, with devaluing RMB and tightening capital policy, Chinese import is restricted. Therefore, they still prefer America as long as it sustains its policy and trade.
Geraci on CCTV Dialogue calls for a European Union to stick to economic cooperation only and to re-think grand plans for momentary and political integration. That is break up of the Euro. He also hopes that Angela Merkel loses elections next year. Today,Pope Francesco proclaimed the International Day of Peace and Geraci reminded CCTV audience that the life of an Italian, a German, a Chinese are all equally worthy regardless of religion, colour and nationalitynglish language.
Geraci was interviewed by Agi China 24 Radio. He said the city of Hangzhou was undergoing a major infrastructure work during the G20. It has penalized the citizens in the short terms with many factories and retail shops being closed, sometimes with very little compensation for the owners. This is the negative impact in the short term. But in the long term, the infrastructure of the city has been improved. The citizens could start to enjoy better connectivity and better underground lines. The area around the west lake also has been further embellished. So overall, the G20 brought the city of Hangzhou short term pains but long term gains. Click to listen the full Radio (Italian).