In my second op-ed written for IlSole24Ore/Radiocor, I compare Italy and China in terms of ranking of legality. According to data from international studies that provide indices of legality for various countries, Italy is a lot better than China, but this is not enough to attract more foreign investment. Even though China is behind Italy several positions, it is ahead of Italy in terms of ‘order and security’ and this is a much important determinant of FDI than the democracy rank.
In this first Op-Ed for 2017 written for Radiocor, I attemp to compare Italian and Chinese economic pillars and suggest a simple program, in eight points, to revive the Italian Economy. China economy finds its success on an combination of government and private sector activity. Italians economy needs better coordination between those two sectors and citizens too need to play their role. More needs to be done, naturally, and I will in the course of the next few days, develop each of those points in more detail. For now, Happy New Year to All..
The rate hike operated by the Fed should not lead to particularly negative consequences for China because China is taking a step back in the reforms of the financial system and closing into itself. As soon as any government makes the choice to open the country’s capital account, there’s little that any central bank can do to defend its currency. China, therefore, does well to re-trench and disconnect from the world of international finance by adopting restrictive measures on the export of capital.
The people of Italy have rejected the proposed changes in the Constitution by a large margin. The Prime Mister, Renzi, the main supporter of this reform has been defeated and has resigned. The two alternative parties, the Northern League and the Five Star Movement are now in a much more favorable position to launch a new referendum that would ask Italian people whether they wish to remain in the Eurozone.
Sunday, the people of Italy will cast their vote for the Constitutional referendum. It is not a referendum about staying or leaving the European Union, as some Chinese media have incorrectly reported recently. If Italians vote “Yes”, the constitution will be changed. If the vote “No”, it stays as it is. The actual content of the constitutional reforms is quite complex and involves changing about one third of the articles of the constitution.
If ‘unity from the bottom’ is not working, Trump should try ‘Unity from the Top’ by trying to involve top members of the Democratic Party in his team. Like in Dante’s Divine Commedy, where the souls of the dead are arranged in concentric circles, according to their degree of beatification, so Trump needs to build his team in a similar fashion.
Geraci, controversially, had anticipated Trumps victory. Is this good news for China or bad news? Geraci reassures that in fact, Trump’s victory is marginally good news for China because US will need to collaborate with China for improving their domestic infrastructure.
Geraci on IlSole/Radiocor plays down China’s interests for US election outcome:“No matter who wins, China will continue on its own path – a difficult one – towards innovation and high end manufacturing. Paradoxically, should Trump take the White House and really impose restrictions on Chinese imports, this would only accelerate China’s transformation.”