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Draghi discute di Europa, ma non mi convince

Oggi commento, paragrafo dopo paragrafo, il discorso di Draghi tenuto in Slovenia.Il Predidente della BCE, ammette che, ad oggi, la zona Euro non soddisfa le condizioni per avere una moneta comune. Tuttavia lo potrebbe diventare se 1) nessuno stato commettesse errori di politica economica; 2) se si facessero riforme strutturali; 3) se ci fosse maggior rigore nei deficit e 4) se si arrivasse ad un unione finanziaria. La differenza tra chi sostiene l’Euro e chi no si risolve quindi nella fiducia o meno che tali quattro punti si realizzino in tempi brevi.

China’s dilemma: equality or economic growth?

Income equality in the world rising, with only a handful of people holding large proportion of worlds’ wealth and so on. Big media headlines just before Davos opened. Chinese’s President Xi Jinping, surprisingly, rises in Davos to the role of paladin of economic liberalism and supporter of more income equality. Unfortunately for China, achieving economic growth and income equality are two contradicting goals. One has to give.

Justice and security: Italy and China in comparison

In my second op-ed written for IlSole24Ore/Radiocor, I compare Italy and China in terms of ranking of legality. According to data from international studies that provide indices of legality for various countries, Italy is a lot better than China, but this is not enough to attract more foreign investment. Even though China is behind Italy several positions, it is ahead of Italy in terms of ‘order and security’ and this is a much important determinant of FDI than the democracy rank.

Italia e Cina: due economie a confronto

In this first Op-Ed for 2017 written for Radiocor, I attemp to compare Italian and Chinese economic pillars and suggest a simple program, in eight points, to revive the Italian Economy. China economy finds its success on an combination of government and private sector activity. Italians economy needs better coordination between those two sectors and citizens too need to play their role. More needs to be done, naturally, and I will in the course of the next few days, develop each of those points in more detail. For now, Happy New Year to All..

China economic outlook

Geraci and Prof Liu Baocheng from University of international business & economics were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 24, December, 2016. The talks mainly concerns Private capital outflow and challenges in manufacturing sector. Geraci belives the top concern for China is to stabilize the financial system. The west and other emerging markets have had experience of crisis, so China needs to be very careful. China should slow down reforms in the financial markets.

China and the World Economy in the Trump Era

When Trump announced that the U.S. infrastructure will be “second to none”, he was almost inviting China to exchange potentially worse trade conditions for better investment opportunity into the U.S. Black Swans are always opportunities if well understood: China needs to quickly move to value added manufacturing (China 2025) and having some trade issues with the U.S can, actually, only help China’s speed up its transition towards innovation.

Fed’s rate rise: little impact on China

The rate hike operated by the Fed should not lead to particularly negative consequences for China because China is taking a step back in the reforms of the financial system and closing into itself. As soon as any government makes the choice to open the country’s capital account, there’s little that any central bank can do to defend its currency. China, therefore, does well to re-trench and disconnect from the world of international finance by adopting restrictive measures on the export of capital.

Italy out of euro next?

The people of Italy have rejected the proposed changes in the Constitution by a large margin. The Prime Mister, Renzi, the main supporter of this reform has been defeated and has resigned. The two alternative parties, the Northern League and the Five Star Movement are now in a much more favorable position to launch a new referendum that would ask Italian people whether they wish to remain in the Eurozone.

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