Italy will hold a referendum on constitutional reform in December 4th. Although Renzi has carried out a series of reforms since he took office, Italian people are very disappointed with the low economic growth in Italy. As OECD forecasted, Italy’s economy will grow by 0.8% this year, 0.9% and 1% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. “It seems that Italy can’t see any hope in its future. “While interviewed by 21st century business herald, Geraci said, “Currently Italian economy and social conditions are in the doldrums. Lot of young people who cannot find jobs left Italy, which worsen the aging problem for the country.”
I was interviews by AgiChina to discuss the recent tightening of capital control imposed by the Chinese Government. This new regulation just, once again, shows that the opening of the Capital account and the consequent internationalization of the RMB are likely to be affected. It is still a long way, and for one step forward there is one (or more) step backward.
Sunday, the people of Italy will cast their vote for the Constitutional referendum. It is not a referendum about staying or leaving the European Union, as some Chinese media have incorrectly reported recently. If Italians vote “Yes”, the constitution will be changed. If the vote “No”, it stays as it is. The actual content of the constitutional reforms is quite complex and involves changing about one third of the articles of the constitution.
Geraci and Prof He Weiwen from Renming University were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 25, November, 2016. They discussed three main topics: Shanghai free trade zone, RMB internationalization and Trump’s impact on china. For Shanghai free trade zone, it is impossible to be successful with no borders control. In terms of RMB internationalization, RMB entering SDR is a recognition that China is moving but it has no practical implication. Trump will increase tariffs, but it’s impact on Chinese exporters may not be as large as originally anticipated.
If ‘unity from the bottom’ is not working, Trump should try ‘Unity from the Top’ by trying to involve top members of the Democratic Party in his team. Like in Dante’s Divine Commedy, where the souls of the dead are arranged in concentric circles, according to their degree of beatification, so Trump needs to build his team in a similar fashion.
Geraci on Al Jazeera said: “Without the US, TPP is dead. Alternative regional trade agreements are also unlikely amongst the remaining countries, because without the US covering their backs and opening its market, no country would have any interest in antagonizing China. While trade is beneficial on average for both countries involved, it is not beneficial for all the citizens. Trump may not be concerned too much about the average wealth or the average U.S. citizens, rather, he would probably be more concerned about the low income of the people who voted for him and supported him, and even if pulling out of TPP is detrimental to the overall US economy, it would be beneficial to the group of voters that support him, hence his anti-TPP stance.”
Geraci has been interviewed by Italian RaiNews to discuss the impact of Trump on Chinese economic development. On the margin, he believes Trump’s presidency will be slightly positive for China. On one hand, Trump has made a promise to raise tariffs for imports from China into the U.S. But Geraci points out that one thing is the rhetoric used during the election period and one other thing is what the President will do afterwards. Obviously he needs to take care of the mid-western voters, people who are particularly hit by the economic recession, and he needs to show he is doing something to help them, without affecting the relationship with China too much.