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What have we learnt from the G7 summit 2017?

Geraci was a guest speaker at CGTN dialogue to comments on the issue.

G7 did not achieve its main goal because it was squeezed in between the Silk road summit in Beijing and forthcoming G20 meeting in Germany, and of course it was of the interest of Germany to make sure that the G7 held in Italy was not going to be successful so that Germany could get all the credit for any international agreement during her G20.

Free trade is good in the long run. Meanwhile…

In 2017, one of the biggest issues that the world will be facing is trade war, especially between China-US. President Xi and Trump have different views. Xi strongly encourages free trade between countries while Trump stresses the importance of fair trade. Michele Geraci has an even different view from both of them. He thinks that opening up trade and lowering trade barriers, in general, would benefit both countries involved, on average, but the problem is that these benefits are not always redistributed fairly within the country.

China needs to reform the financial system, and this should be done slowly

China’s foreign reserves slipped below the $3 trillion level in January, the lowest level since February 2011. In the background of a lacking economic confidence and rising trade protectionism throughout the world, the implications of the decline of China’s foreign reserves remains to be seen. It is a concern because the world has been used to China accumulating reserves. The main concern is not the level of reserves, but is the trend.

China’s dilemma: equality or economic growth?

Income equality in the world rising, with only a handful of people holding large proportion of worlds’ wealth and so on. Big media headlines just before Davos opened. Chinese’s President Xi Jinping, surprisingly, rises in Davos to the role of paladin of economic liberalism and supporter of more income equality. Unfortunately for China, achieving economic growth and income equality are two contradicting goals. One has to give.

China economic outlook

Geraci and Prof Liu Baocheng from University of international business & economics were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 24, December, 2016. The talks mainly concerns Private capital outflow and challenges in manufacturing sector. Geraci belives the top concern for China is to stabilize the financial system. The west and other emerging markets have had experience of crisis, so China needs to be very careful. China should slow down reforms in the financial markets.

Geraci dampens enthusiasm on financial reforms

Geraci and Prof He Weiwen from Renming University were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 25, November, 2016. They discussed three main topics: Shanghai free trade zone, RMB internationalization and Trump’s impact on china. For Shanghai free trade zone, it is impossible to be successful with no borders control. In terms of RMB internationalization, RMB entering SDR is a recognition that China is moving but it has no practical implication. Trump will increase tariffs, but it’s impact on Chinese exporters may not be as large as originally anticipated.