China's foreign reserves slipped below the $3 trillion level in January, the lowest level since February 2011. In the background of a lacking economic confidence and rising trade protectionism throughout the world, the implications of the decline of China’s foreign reserves remains to be seen. It is a concern because the world has been used to China accumulating reserves. The main concern is not the level of reserves, but is the trend.
Income equality in the world rising, with only a handful of people holding large proportion of worlds’ wealth and so on. Big media headlines just before Davos opened. Chinese’s President Xi Jinping, surprisingly, rises in Davos to the role of paladin of economic liberalism and supporter of more income equality. Unfortunately for China, achieving economic growth and income equality are two contradicting goals. One has to give.
Geraci and Prof Liu Baocheng from University of international business & economics were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 24, December, 2016. The talks mainly concerns Private capital outflow and challenges in manufacturing sector. Geraci belives the top concern for China is to stabilize the financial system. The west and other emerging markets have had experience of crisis, so China needs to be very careful. China should slow down reforms in the financial markets.
Geraci and Prof He Weiwen from Renming University were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 25, November, 2016. They discussed three main topics: Shanghai free trade zone, RMB internationalization and Trump’s impact on china. For Shanghai free trade zone, it is impossible to be successful with no borders control. In terms of RMB internationalization, RMB entering SDR is a recognition that China is moving but it has no practical implication. Trump will increase tariffs, but it's impact on Chinese exporters may not be as large as originally anticipated.
Geraci on Al Jazeera said: “Without the US, TPP is dead. Alternative regional trade agreements are also unlikely amongst the remaining countries, because without the US covering their backs and opening its market, no country would have any interest in antagonizing China. While trade is beneficial on average for both countries involved, it is not beneficial for all the citizens. Trump may not be concerned too much about the average wealth or the average U.S. citizens, rather, he would probably be more concerned about the low income of the people who voted for him and supported him, and even if pulling out of TPP is detrimental to the overall US economy, it would be beneficial to the group of voters that support him, hence his anti-TPP stance.”
Geraci has been interviewed by Italian RaiNews to discuss the impact of Trump on Chinese economic development. On the margin, he believes Trump’s presidency will be slightly positive for China. On one hand, Trump has made a promise to raise tariffs for imports from China into the U.S. But Geraci points out that one thing is the rhetoric used during the election period and one other thing is what the President will do afterwards. Obviously he needs to take care of the mid-western voters, people who are particularly hit by the economic recession, and he needs to show he is doing something to help them, without affecting the relationship with China too much.
Geraci on CCTV Dialogue calls for a European Union to stick to economic cooperation only and to re-think grand plans for momentary and political integration. That is break up of the Euro. He also hopes that Angela Merkel loses elections next year. Today,Pope Francesco proclaimed the International Day of Peace and Geraci reminded CCTV audience that the life of an Italian, a German, a Chinese are all equally worthy regardless of religion, colour and nationalitynglish language.
Geraci on CCTV Dialogue discusses the importance of enhancing mutual understanding of cultures in order to enhance China-EU relationship. He strongly emphasised the need for cross cultural learning to start at early age, high school or even earlier. Without such early exposure, university students fail to grasp the differences and the challenges. In other words, starting at University is too late.