Alberto Bagnai said that there should be a controlled end to the euro. He is a professor at Pescara University who is one of the leading Italian advocates of leaving the euro. My main comment is that if Italy remains in the Eurozone, it will be very difficult, almost impossible, for Italy to escape the current economic crisis. Indeed, things may get worse over time. If however, Italy decides to exit the Eurozone, there is a chance. It does not mean that Italexit will bring prosperity, but it will give Italians a chance.
Since last year, I have argued that economic growth in China would take a less and less important role in China’s political agenda. My view is that Chinese policymakers are well aware that growth cannot be sustained for the foreseeable future and are therefore looking for new objectives and for a new narrative that can maintain social stability. It is a bit like an ex-post rationalization of a problem: “Given that GDP growth cannot be sustained, let’s play down the importance of the economy and focus on other goals so that we can continue to meet those – new – objective”. The output from the Two Session seems to go in this direction.
Premier Li on the CPPCC published the Government Work Report, setting the key growth target for 2017. GDP growth target is expected to be 6.5%, government deficit target to be 3%, CPI to be 3%., and the unemployment rate to be 4.5%.
Last year, the GDP growth rate was 6.7%, with total GDP reached 74.4 trillion yuan. CPI increased by 2%. Industrial profitability turned positive from -2.3% in 2015 to 8.4% in 2016.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the Fifteenth Central Leading Group on Finance and Economic Affairs, which is often regard as an important reference for the National People’s Congress in March. At this meeting, he pointed out to speed up reform this year, along three main axis. In my view, reforms should always be carried out carefully and the timing and depth of such reforms is key.
The president of Italy is currently in china for an official state visit. This state visit comes at an interesting time for both China and Italy: the two countries are engaging more than before into a commercial dialogue of mutual respect and common interests, trade between the two counties shows good sign of improvement and Italian trade deficit appears to narrow slightly and capital investments made in the past couple of years have all helped improve the image that the Italian Business community has of China.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi claimed that China has been consistently supporting the European integration and China is willing to work with the European side for the world’s peace and development. To understand China’s continuing official declaration of support for the EU and the unity of Europe, we also have to bear in mind that sometimes China uses each one of the 28 members of the EU as 28 potential choices of entry. What the EU sees as a strength, that is its own unity, China sees it as EU weakness, because China’ strategy is one of Divide et impera.
Prof Alberto Bagnai, intervistato da TGCom24, ci ricorda che gli stati Europei hanno dimenticato il principio di autodeterminazione, dal momento che le scelte dei paesi sono ormai in mano a Brussels. Il debito pubblico italiano sarebbe convertibile in Lire e, nonostante la cosa non sia semplicissima, il problema diventa tanto più complesso quanto più si posticipa la possibile uscita dell’Italia dall’Euro. Il mio commento è che è ormai giunto il momento di affrontare la questione in modo oggettivo, non legato alle politiche. Suppongo che sia chi sia a favore sia chi sia contro l’uscita dall’Euro abbia a cuore il benessere degli Italiani. Propongo una conferenza dove si discutano questi temi, e che il parlamento e governo italiano, per una volta, dimentichino il proprio partito di appartenenza e si discuta di contenuti ..al più presto.
“Europe 2017: Make It or Break It?” is the tile of a conference organised by ISPI and LUISS University and held in Rome on Jan 24th. Participants included Giorgio Napolitano, Mario Monti and so on. It was quite a high level of discussion on the challenges and opportunities that Europe faces today, ranging from the migrant crisis to banking Union to the role of EU and the European Commission and of course Brexit and the Euro.