Greetings from the tropical island of Hainan, the economic forum has ended and I looked at our PNRR over the weekend it doesn’t seem like much, so in the meantime within the document itself yes yes admits the tax multiplier of only 0.9 so what does it mean that we are spending 182 billion of the plan and we will receive 90% about 160 billion so we spend x and we receive less. Obviously this return is all spread over the following six years it is not immediate also obviously the investment is not yet spread over the years. What this means is that there is not that, let’s say, the country’s great recovery plan.
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Attention let’s make it simple even a multiplier 1 spends 1 and the GDP goes up by one does not have this great boost, they fly for the economy but be careful, since our debt / GDP is higher than 100 percent if the debt rises and 1 and the GDP goes up by 1 so with multipliers equal to par here the debt / GDP ratio goes down because 150 divided by 100 is more than 151 divided by 101 so even if we were to accept the even multiplier, 1: 1 could have benefits on the ratio debt / GDP. Debt / GDP ratio that attention is what it is, in short, it is not the Holy Grail it serves for the European criteria for sustainability in short, it serves to borrow money, we are in a dead end. But attention to this plan, in my opinion, lacks that of that vision, I understand President Draghi very well , obviously, unfortunately, there is always parliament and not all parties have the interest of the country at heart.Let’s remember that in twenty months yes the chambers are dissolved, we will go to elections so there will be this year and a half, which will be used to campaign for elections there is nothing better than having some funds to distribute and making the ring road here, a street there, a sidewalk here and there. So this plan unfortunately lacks what, in my opinion, is the vision of relaunching and real revolution of the country’s economic and social system.
The country needs a revolution of a complete change of everything, of a CTRL + ALT + DELETE as I said yesterday to the computer to do everything from the beginning. Attention incremental approaches are not needed, a holistic approach is also needed, which unfortunately I see lacking as a whole. So I’m very worried we will end up with a debt higher than 180 billion and with a GDP that if all goes well is what it is and probably this one too, even this multiplier of one is a bit optimistic. So there is a little, there is still a lot to do for our country. Greetings, in the meantime, here the weather is fine and there is no curfew, there is no virus they have defeated it.