China’s State Council issued a notice aimed at “efficiently use foreign capital to further expand investment and create a fair competitive environment”. I believe it when I see it. The relevant policies and regulations are to relax the restrictions on access to foreign investment in services, manufacturing, mining and other fields.
Accroding to Hexun.com, State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE), fearing that cross-border M&A may be used by Chinese groups to move capital offshore, indicated that it will crack down on speculative acquisitions. From now on only “Strategic” acquisitions – that is those that have synergies with the buyer’s business at home – will be allowed. The closing of the Capital Account indicates, as I have often argued, that the Internationalization of the RMB is further away than generally assumed.
Geraci and Prof Liu Baocheng from University of international business & economics were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 24, December, 2016. The talks mainly concerns Private capital outflow and challenges in manufacturing sector. Geraci belives the top concern for China is to stabilize the financial system. The west and other emerging markets have had experience of crisis, so China needs to be very careful. China should slow down reforms in the financial markets.
When Trump announced that the U.S. infrastructure will be “second to none”, he was almost inviting China to exchange potentially worse trade conditions for better investment opportunity into the U.S. Black Swans are always opportunities if well understood: China needs to quickly move to value added manufacturing (China 2025) and having some trade issues with the U.S can, actually, only help China’s speed up its transition towards innovation.
The rate hike operated by the Fed should not lead to particularly negative consequences for China because China is taking a step back in the reforms of the financial system and closing into itself. As soon as any government makes the choice to open the country’s capital account, there’s little that any central bank can do to defend its currency. China, therefore, does well to re-trench and disconnect from the world of international finance by adopting restrictive measures on the export of capital.
Geraci and Prof He Weiwen from Renming University were guests at CCTV Dialogue on 25, November, 2016. They discussed three main topics: Shanghai free trade zone, RMB internationalization and Trump’s impact on china. For Shanghai free trade zone, it is impossible to be successful with no borders control. In terms of RMB internationalization, RMB entering SDR is a recognition that China is moving but it has no practical implication. Trump will increase tariffs, but it’s impact on Chinese exporters may not be as large as originally anticipated.
Geraci on Al Jazeera said: “Without the US, TPP is dead. Alternative regional trade agreements are also unlikely amongst the remaining countries, because without the US covering their backs and opening its market, no country would have any interest in antagonizing China. While trade is beneficial on average for both countries involved, it is not beneficial for all the citizens. Trump may not be concerned too much about the average wealth or the average U.S. citizens, rather, he would probably be more concerned about the low income of the people who voted for him and supported him, and even if pulling out of TPP is detrimental to the overall US economy, it would be beneficial to the group of voters that support him, hence his anti-TPP stance.”
Geraci has been interviewed by Italian RaiNews to discuss the impact of Trump on Chinese economic development. On the margin, he believes Trump’s presidency will be slightly positive for China. On one hand, Trump has made a promise to raise tariffs for imports from China into the U.S. But Geraci points out that one thing is the rhetoric used during the election period and one other thing is what the President will do afterwards. Obviously he needs to take care of the mid-western voters, people who are particularly hit by the economic recession, and he needs to show he is doing something to help them, without affecting the relationship with China too much.