With indirect trade flows, the US leaps to the top


A flow of Italian exports largely revisited. With the USA first destination country and no longer Germany. And with the big Asian economies and Russia heavier for our trade balance. It is the result that would be obtained if the criteria of a study conducted by the former Undersecretary for Economic Development with delegation to foreign trade Michele Geraci were applied.


You can found the original article on “Il Sole 24 Ore” – ilsole24ore.com 

After spending time in the first Conte government, as part of the Lega, as a major facilitator of the Italy-China business and the Silk Road Agreement, Geraci has returned to academic and consulting activities and has recalculated the official export statistics of Italy not only according to the country of first import but considering other elements: 1) triangulations via transit countries, such as Holland and Belgium, 2) the supply chain of our components that we export to a particular country (for example Germany) but that this reprocesses and re-exports to a third country, 3) the purchases of goods and services of non-resident tourists who buy made in Italy abroad, Japanese, for example, who buy Italian fashion in Paris. «An exercise that reflects a complexity of the global value chain that did not exist in the past» says the former undersecretary. In its own way a statistic different from the Istat surveys, which produces however results surprising. Europe’s weight in the top positions is diminishing and this, according to Geraci, «should be a useful starting point also to think differently in terms of marketing and proposition of our made in Italy on foreign markets with a capacity to look at the real consumer-end user».

In the official statistics the first three countries of destination are in order Germany, France, USA, followed by Switzerland, Great Britain, Spain, Belgium, Poland, China, Holland. In the statistics revisited by the study of Geraci the first place goes to the USA, China rises to the fourth step and among the top ten countries go up Japan and Russia. Scale two positions, from 18th to 16th, South Korea. While Germany and France respectively fell to second and third place, Switzerland to sixth. The more abrupt descent however puts it to sign Holland (from the tenth to the 15th place)and Belgium (from the seventh to the 14th) for the double effect of the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp, transit towards countries outside the EU.

The recalculation of trade flows produces relevant figures. The Netherlands would fall from 12.9 to 9.6 billion dollars of “purchases”. The United States would rise from 48.6 billion to 85 billion, of which 80.5 billion final consumption in the United States and 4.5 billion reprocessed and re-exported. China would increase from 14.7 billion to 44.5 billion of which 38.4 billion of direct consumption. For Korea the jump would be from 5.3 to 9 billion (6.8 of consumption on Korean soil).


  • Con i flussi commerciali indiretti gli Usa balzano al top – Carmine Fotina –ilsole24ore.com


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