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Fiscal review forecast as proxy for GDP growth rate in 2017

According to the annual budget report of the Finance Department of the central province of Hunan, the central government has estimated that national fiscal revenue will increase 5% this year and local government fiscal revenue will increase 6%. Looking at the fiscal budget and in particularly the forecasted increase in revenues, could offer an indication of the government expectation of future nominal GDP growth rate. So from this figures, 6 % of expected fiscal revenue growth, one could try to get an estimate for next year fiscal GDP growth.

China’s January PMI slightly down to 51.3

According to Xinhua, China’s manufacturing sector expands for the sixth month in a row. The country’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 51.3 in January, 0.1 percentage points lower than that recorded in December, according to data released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe said January’s reading remained at a high level since 2012 and pointed to steady expansion of the manufacturing sector.

China GDP at 6.7%: not even my Excel Solver gets so many numbers right, every quarter

As expected, the GDP grew by 6.7%, down from the 6.9% in 2015. Strong financial expenses and bank debts kept high growth in real estate industry. But Xi warned that Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, where financial risks and industrial overcapacity are top economic challenges. Additionally, the risk of trade war with America is another challenge threatening Chinese economy. In truth GDP growth rate in China is largely irrelevant and rather than being an achievement, it is simply “a budget target “.

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